Food Waste in Bakeries: Causes, Costs, Solutions

Bakeries are among the industries with the highest levels of food waste. Estimates suggest that between 10% and 20% of the goods produced in the bakery sector go unsold. Whatever is left at the end of the day is thrown away, used as animal feed, donated to organizations, or sold at heavily discounted prices.

None of these solutions is truly satisfactory. The raw materials, energy, and labor hours that went into production are lost. And the company bears the cost.

The issue isn't new—but the tools to solve it are. Today, AI-based sales forecasts offer a concrete way to systematically reduce overproduction without sacrificing revenue.

The True Cost of Food Waste in Bakeries

Direct costs are easy to calculate: raw materials, energy, and labor hours for products that nobody buys. With a return rate of 15% on annual sales of CHF 500,000, that amounts to CHF 75,000 in produced goods that generate no revenue. After deducting raw material costs, energy, and labor hours, the result is a real loss that runs into the five figures for many businesses.

In addition, there are indirect costs that are more difficult to quantify:

Disposal costs. Food waste must be disposed of properly. Depending on the region, fees may apply.

Time spent. Returns must be recorded, sorted, and processed—whether for disposal, redistribution, or sale at discounted prices. This takes time every day.

Cost-saving effects. Many businesses factor returns into their selling price. This means that customers pay more so that the business can cover the cost of returns. By reducing returns, a business can either lower its prices or increase its profit margin.

Pressure to be sustainable. Customers, employees, and the public are paying increasing attention to sustainability. Bakeries that throw away large quantities of food every day are under pressure to explain themselves—especially in an industry that positions itself as a craft sector with high quality standards.

Why bakeries are particularly affected

Food waste in bakeries has structural causes that differ from those in other industries:

Extremely short shelf life. Most baked goods have a shelf life ranging from a few hours to a maximum of one day. Anything baked in the morning that hasn’t been sold by evening generally can’t be sold the next day.

Expectations of well-stocked shelves. Customers expect a good selection right up until closing time. An empty shelf at 4 p.m. is perceived as poor service. This expectation consistently leads businesses to produce more rather than less.

Fluctuating demand. Weather, day of the week, holidays, local events—demand for baked goods fluctuates more than in many other food sectors. These fluctuations are the main cause of planning errors.

Wide selection. Many bakeries carry between 50 and 200 different items. Planning each one correctly every day is a huge undertaking.

The combination of a short shelf life, high customer expectations, and fluctuating demand makes bakeries particularly vulnerable to overproduction.

What are some possible solutions?

Today, bakeries use various methods to deal with surplus products:

Donations to organizations. Many businesses donate surplus goods to food banks or other organizations. While this is socially valuable, it does not solve the underlying problem—overproduction remains.

Selling at discounted prices. Apps and platforms make it possible to sell surplus inventory at discounted prices. This reduces financial losses but does not affect production volumes.

Further processing. Stale bread is processed into breadcrumbs, croutons, or animal feed. This reduces waste, but it is labor-intensive and yields little profit.

Reduce the product range. Some businesses are scaling back their product range to simplify planning. This can work, but it limits the appeal to customers.

All of these approaches have one thing in common: they focus on the end of the chain—specifically, on managing excess inventory. The most effective lever, however, lies at the beginning: in production planning.

Why better planning is the most effective lever

If you want to reduce excess inventory, you need to plan more carefully. And planning more carefully means forecasting the right quantity for each item at each location, taking all relevant factors into account.

That is exactly what AI-based sales forecasts do. GoNina automatically GoNina sales data from the point-of-sale system, combines it with weather forecasts, holidays, school breaks, and local events, and uses this information to generate a daily forecast for each product and location.

The result isn't just a vague trend, but a specific order recommendation: how many croissants, loaves of bread, and sandwiches will be needed tomorrow at each location. These recommendations can be accepted as is or adjusted manually.

Businesses that GoNina reduce their excess inventory by up to 52%. At the same time, sales increase by up to 6% because the right products are available more often. Less waste and higher sales are not mutually exclusive—quite the opposite.

Frequently Asked Questions

Doesn't reduced production automatically mean empty shelves?No. The goal isn't to produce less, but to be more precise. The AI forecasts expected demand, not a blanket reduction. Products in high demand will continue to be produced in sufficient quantities. Quantities will only be adjusted where there is a regular surplus.

Can I measure and track waste?Yes. GoNina dashboards that show returns and excess inventory by location and item. This allows you to track which products are regularly left over and how the return rate changes over time.

Will this still help if I’m already using an app to sell surplus inventory?Yes, and it’s actually the better combination. Selling surplus inventory reduces financial losses, while GoNina the surplus itself. Together, they’re the most effective way to cut down on waste.

Conclusion

Food waste in bakeries isn’t inevitable. It results from a mismatch between what is produced and what is actually sold. The smaller this gap, the less waste there is.

AI-based sales forecasts close this gap—not perfectly, but measurably. And they do it every day, automatically, and for each product individually.

You can read about how AI sales forecasts work in general in our comprehensive guide for bakeries.

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