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Variable order quantities instead of fixed weekly patterns
In many bakeries, order quantities are set once and then carried over week after week with little change. This saves time, but often leads to systematic discrepancies between production and actual demand.
In a previous article, we showed how AI-based sales forecasts simplify production planning in bakeries. A key factor in this process is variable order quantities that are adjusted daily.
You can find more information about how AI forecasts work in production planning here: https://www.gonina.com/blog/weniger-planungsaufwand-baeckerei-ki-prognosen
Why Fixed Order Quantities Don't Work
Demand for baked goods is constantly changing. Often, even small changes are enough to make fixed order quantities no longer appropriate.
Common triggers include:
- Sudden changes in the weather within a few days
- Vacations and Holidays
- local events or activities, such as construction sites
- Differing performance of individual stores
These changes happen quickly. That is exactly why static planning on a weekly basis quickly becomes inaccurate. What worked last week may already be too much or too little this week.
The key difference in planning
The difference isn't whether planning takes place, but how.
Fixed Order Quantities:
- once determined
- are heavily based on experience
- will be adjusted only in specific cases
- respond slowly to changes
Variable Order Quantities Based on AI Forecasts:
- are recalculated daily
- are based on current data
- adjust automatically
- respond directly to changes
As a result, planning shifts from a fixed pattern to dynamic management.
How Variable Order Quantities Are Determined
This is based on data that is reevaluated daily. The AI analyzes how various factors affect demand and combines this information to generate an up-to-date forecast.
Factors taken into account include, among others:
- Sales data from the point-of-sale system (e.g., HS Soft, ProtecData)
- Weather Forecasts
- Weekday and Seasonal Patterns
- Holidays and school vacations
- Local Events
- Trends by Store and Product
Based on this, a new sales forecast is generated every day for each item and location. Specific order quantities are then derived from these forecasts.
What Will Actually Change in Everyday Life
In day-to-day operations, the difference is evident not so much in the planning itself as in the ability to respond. When demand changes on short notice, this is taken into account immediately. A rainy day, a product that’s selling well, or increased foot traffic at a store have an immediate impact on order quantities. Planning is therefore no longer based on assumptions, but on a database that is updated daily.
Greater precision at the item level
A major advantage of variable order quantities is the level of detail they provide. Instead of planning only total quantities, control is significantly more granular.
This makes it possible to:
- Targeted customization of individual products
- Taking into Account Differences Between Stores
- faster response to sales trends
- better alignment of the product lineup with actual demand
Especially when dealing with a wide range of products and multiple locations, this directly leads to fewer returns and measurably higher sales.
Conclusion
Fixed order quantities are easy to implement, but they don't accommodate demand that changes from day to day.
Variable order quantities ensure that production continuously adapts and more closely reflects actual demand. For bakeries, this means one thing above all: more precise decisions without additional planning effort.
