Less planning effort in the bakery thanks to AI forecasts

Production planning is one of the most time-consuming tasks in the daily operations of a bakery. Every day, bakeries must decide how many products to bake. Producing too much leads to returns and food waste, while producing too little means lost revenue.

Many bakeries still plan their production manually. Store managers analyze sales figures, take into account the weather, the day of the week, or holidays, and then make a decision. This takes time and is often inaccurate. It becomes particularly complicated when a company operates multiple locations.

As a result, more and more businesses are turning to AI-based sales forecasts to make their production planning more accurate and efficient. GoNina one such solution—an AI platform that helps bakeries in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, and other European markets tackle this very challenge.

Why production planning takes so much time

Demand for baked goods fluctuates significantly. Weather affects sales of many products, holidays alter customer traffic, different days of the week have varying demand patterns, local events shift demand, and stores perform differently across the seasons.

To make sound production decisions, all these factors would have to be taken into account on a daily basis. In practice, this is hardly possible. Many bakeries therefore rely on rules of thumb: “We sell fewer croissants on Mondays,” “More bread sells when it rains,” “We bake more before holidays.” These rules of thumb are helpful, but they’re too general—especially with larger product ranges or multiple locations, planning quickly becomes complex and prone to errors.

How AI forecasts simplify planning

AI-based sales forecasts automatically analyze large amounts of data and identify patterns that are barely visible to the naked eye. To do this, GoNina directly to the bakery’s point-of-sale system (e.g., HS Soft) and also takes into account historical sales figures, daily weather forecasts, holidays and school breaks, weekday and seasonal patterns, as well as store-specific trends.

Based on this data, the AI generates a daily sales forecast for each product and location for the next 14 days. Instead of making its own estimates, the company receives specific recommendations for production volumes. These forecasts are fed directly back into the ERP system as order recommendations.

Where exactly time is saved

The greatest time savings come from daily production and order planning. Many companies spend time every day analyzing sales figures, discussing production volumes, adjusting production schedules, and following up on returns.

GoNina a large part of this process: sales data is automatically analyzed, the AI calculates a demand forecast, production quantities are suggested, and these are automatically incorporated into order proposals. The production plan can be adopted directly or adjusted manually as needed.

Businesses that GoNina save up to 12 hours a month on planning and reduce their excess inventory by up to 52%. At the same time, sales increase by up to 6% because the product range is better aligned with actual demand.

For which bakeries is this particularly worthwhile?

In general, bakeries of all sizes can benefit from AI-driven forecasts. The more locations and products that need to be planned, the greater the impact of automation. Chain bakeries with multiple locations save a significant amount of time.

But smaller businesses benefit as well. Even better planning for individual products can lead to fewer returns and unlock sales potential. The combination of time savings, fewer returns, and better product assortment planning ensures that the investment pays off quickly. GoNina a 4-week trial period with a money-back guarantee.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do I need to use AI sales forecasts in my bakery?You need a point-of-sale system that digitally records sales data. GoNina directly to point-of-sale systems like HS Soft and imports the data automatically. The onboarding process usually takes just a few days.

Does this work for small bakeries with just one location?Yes. Even with a single location, the AI analyzes patterns in your sales data that are difficult to detect manually—such as the impact of weather, school holidays, or days of the week on individual products.

How accurate are the forecasts?Accuracy depends on data quality and sales history. Businesses that GoNina typically achieve a reduction in excess inventory of up to 52% and an increase in sales of up to 6%.

Conclusion

Production planning in bakeries is becoming increasingly data-driven. AI-powered sales forecasts help automatically analyze data and generate specific production recommendations. This saves time in day-to-day operations while improving the quality of planning.

For many businesses, this means less manual planning, fewer returns, better product range decisions, and more focus on the actual craft.