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In most bakeries, two types of planning run in parallel: Production planning determines what will be baked. Staffing planning determines who works when. Both directly influence each other—and yet they are often handled separately, by different people, using different tools.
Many businesses are familiar with this situation: On busy days, there aren’t enough hands in the bakery; on slow days, there are too many people for too little work. Both situations come at a cost—one in lost revenue, the other in labor costs.
Why These Two Plans Go Hand in Hand
The connection is simple: Production volume determines the amount of work required. If you know that 30% more is produced on Saturday than on Tuesday, you can staff the shifts accordingly. If you don’t know this, you’ll schedule staff based on habit—and habit takes no account of holiday effects, sudden changes in the weather, or vacation weeks.
Added to this is the shortage of skilled workers. There is a shortage of bakers and sales staff, overtime puts a strain on teams, and last-minute shift changes are unpopular. The sooner a business knows how much work is coming up, the easier it is to plan staff schedules—and the more attractive the workplace becomes.
How Sales Forecasts Improve Workforce Planning
A good sales forecast is always also a workload forecast. GoNina calculates the expected demand per item and location for the next seven days—taking into account weather, holidays, school breaks, and seasonal patterns. This directly determines how much production is scheduled for each day.
In practice, this means:
Schedule shifts based on workload rather than a set schedule. If the forecast for Thursday indicates a busy day—such as the day before a holiday—the bakery can be staffed with additional personnel in advance, rather than having to improvise on the day itself.
Make the most of quieter days. Days with low demand are ideal for pre-production, cleaning, taking vacation, or continuing education—planned rather than spontaneous.
Allocate sales staff to each store. The forecasts also show which stores are expected to see high foot traffic and when. This helps determine where an additional staff member will be most effective.
Fewer conflicts, more lead time. When you create shift schedules based on a weekly forecast, you’ll have to make last-minute changes less often. The team knows where it stands sooner.
The dual impact on costs
Labor costs and cost of goods sold are the two largest expense categories for a bakery—and accurate forecasts impact both at the same time. Reducing overproduction lowers the cost of goods sold, while better shift scheduling cuts down on idle time and overtime. Bakeries that use GoNina reduce their surplus by up to 52% and save up to 12 hours of planning time per month—time that often goes directly toward staff management.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does GoNina replace my shift scheduling tool?
No. GoNina provides demand and production forecasts—the foundation for sound shift decisions. The actual scheduling process remains in your usual tool or workflow.
How far in advance can I plan?
The forecasts cover the next seven days and are updated daily. This is the key timeframe for weekly shift planning.
Is this worth it even for small teams?
Especially for them. The smaller the team, the more expensive each misstaffed shift becomes—and the more valuable a reliable overview of the coming week is.
Conclusion
Production planning and workforce planning are two sides of the same question: How much work is there to be done? Those who answer this question based on data save in two ways—on the cost of goods and on labor costs. Read the in-depth article to learn how forecasts reduce the overall planning effort.
Our comprehensive guide to AI sales forecasting for bakeries provides a complete overview.
